The World Cup and Retirement
- Alex Potter, CFP®
- Jul 1
- 3 min read
It Takes Eight Games to Win - Not One
A few weeks ago, my family and I sat in AT&T Stadium in Texas and watched Japan and the Netherlands play to a 2–2 draw in their opening World Cup match. If you missed it, here's what happened: Japan fell behind, equalized, fell behind again, and then equalized one more time in the 88th minute. They never led for a single second of the match, but they were able to capture a point to try and move on to the knockout stage.
It got me thinking about retirement.
One Goal Doesn't Win the Cup
This is the first World Cup with 48 teams, which means the team that lifts the trophy on July 19th will have played eight matches over more than five weeks to get there.
It doesn't matter if a team has one perfect match. The emotional rollar coaster of eight matches is certainly stressful, painful, joyful, emotional, and getting through takes consistency.
Retirement works the same way.
There's a powerful pull to believe that outcomes come down to one brilliant decision. The right stock, the perfect moment to get out of the market, the emotional wherewithal to buy at the bottom. It almost never works that way. The people who finish the tournament are the ones who keep showing up and executing a plan, decade after decade.
Lessons From the Soccer Field
Even the draws count!
Japan's match against the Netherlands was a thriller, but the result was a humble 2-2 draw. Though Japan earned a single point for the tie, it didn't carry the excitement of a win. Your "draws" are the unglamourous years... maxing out Roth contributions or staying invested through a flat market. We tend to discount slow and steady results because they're not exciting. Often those quiet points on the board are what move the needle for your future success.
Stay invested in the boring years!
Some years when it seemed like the market did "nothing" with dividends reinvested (see table and chart below).
The boring years can lead to huge wins!
$10,000 invested in 1994, while weathering the "boring" years, would have turned into over $280,000.
"Time in the market beats timing the market" - Kenneth Fisher
You can be down two goals and still get results!
Japan trailed twice in the game and didn't panic. They stuck to their game plan and kept attacking until the end. When the market puts investors down two goals, the instinct is to do something - sell, pull back, abandon the strategy. That instinct of acting at the wrong moment is what turns a temporary deficit into a permanent loss. The tams that advance are the ones who hold their ground when they're behind.
The below chart shows the difference between "doing nothing" after the tariff tantrum in 2025 vs. moving to cash.
A deep run takes a deep squad!
No team wins it all on one superstar (execpt maybe Messi). It takes defense, midfield, and strikers. Your plan is the same - it isn't just your investments! It's your tax strategy, emergency fund, insurance plans, and estate planning documents. When one part of the roster is weak, the rest of the team can suffer.
In the moments leading up to the tournament, Japan had already beaten Brazil and England - the preparation was done long before kickoff. And it showed in the final minutes against the Netherlands, they dug out an equalizer in the 88th minute. I was there, and the noise in that stadium was out of this world!
So as you watch the World Cup (I hope you do!), keep in mind this newsletter and what it means for your own retirement plan. Where can you show up consistently for your plan? How can you tweak your bench to strengthen your team? If you'd like to schedule a time to meet and review your financial goals, please don't hesitate to reach out.
Lastly, go USA and Japan (unfortunately Japan got knocked out in the round of 32)! For those that don't know, my mother is Japanese and my father is American. Both teams look great this tournament and can't wait to see who ends up on top.
(Here's my squad - sorry Mia, we had to leave you back with Gma&Gpa!)
Alex Potter, CFP®
World Cup Fact
The World Cup is the most watched sporting event globally with over 5 billion viewers!
Securities offered through Registered Representatives of Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisor Representative, Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor. This communication is strictly intended for individuals residing in the states of MI, IN, OH. Cambridge and Foundation Wealth Management are not affiliated.
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